Sunday, November 05, 2006

DO NOT Trust Pollsters!!!! They are Lying

TO: D4G Team for Change
FR: Greg McNeilly
RE: Dj vu
DT: November 5, 2006

"Dj vu." Upfront I admit that I don't like starting a memo with a French phrase but it applies.

It's 2006 but we've been here before.

Michigan has a long and undisputed history of proving late polls completely wrong and false. Winning Michigan campaigns have always been for the stout of heart. That's why we always fight so hard.

There are 2 things that we need to help with victory on Tuesday, November 7:

  1. Public polls showing a wide lead for Granholm, lulling the opposition into a lackluster effort; and
  2. An energized turnout push.

Fortunately both are occurring.

Today the Detroit Free Press will publish a poll by an out-of-state polling firm showing a 10+ lead for Granholm (both instate public polling firms show the race for Governor at +6 and +7).

Today's Free Press poll is identical to the polling released in the infamous 1990 race.

And our voter contact in our volunteer Get-Out-The-Vote phase is hitting a record-breaking pace.

In 2 days, Michigan is going to witness a regime change with the election of Dick DeVos as our next Governor. Here's why D4G will win:

November 4, 2006 Detroit News

Message. Message is always key to victory (isn't everything vital?). While Governor Granholm has done a solid job of attacking the messenger as the message of her campaign, the power of change in this campaign environment trumps the message of `Stay the Course' for the status quo. In the past 2 decades, in over 100 races for Governor, no incumbent has survived re-election with Wrong Track numbers as high as Michigan's.

History of polling. Adjusted to this year's calendar, let's look at the reliability of Michigan's public polling in the past:

Thursday, November 2 Posthumus -11 (2002) finished -4
Thursday, November 2 Engler -12 (1990) yet won by less than 1
Friday, November 3 Stabenow -12 (2000) yet won by 1
Sunday, November 5 Engler -17 (1990) yet won by less than 1
Monday, November 6 Abraham -13 (1994) yet won by +9
True as most clichs are, polling is not a reliable predictor of who is going to win. And public polling is the worst. Democrat strategist James Carville once infamously quipped regarding media polls, "you're like children with matches, you shouldn't play with them, you all don't know what you're doing and someone's gonna get hurt."

The Battle for Detroit. Most pundits won't chance a prediction that D4G will outperform historical trends in the City of Detroit. Many analysts predict a higher turnout in the City of Detroit due to Proposal 06-02. While turnout remains a mystery, the percentage of D4G support will outpace historic trends. In the most recent contest against Jennifer Granholm, Dick Posthumus received 5% of the vote in the City of Detroit.

Turnout Kings. In recent years, the Michigan GOP has become known as turnout kings nationally. Simply put, we get it done. Base intensity is at an all time high for an off year in Michigan and our volunteers are making more voter contacts this past week than at the same time in the presidential year of 2004. Yesterday (Saturday), our volunteers made over 200,000 volunteer voter contacts.

The reality is the media and all of the professional pundits matter little to the outcome. The vote belongs to the people whom will go to the polls in 48 hours and decide the future of our state.

It's up to us to fight hard and finish this battle as victors.

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